Post-Mortem: International Politics

• The Spanish election held last December did not lead to the formation of a stable government.  Thus, I have decided to void my Spanish PM and Spanish PM v2 questions.  These seemed like reasonable questions at the time, but they unfortunately assumed that a stable government would be formed as a result of the December election.
• The Austrian Presidential Election resulted in the election of Alexander Van der Bellen.  I said he had a 35% chance of winning, which was the highest I gave any candidate.  I might have been under confident for this question, although the final result was fairly close.
• The Dominican Republic Election was won by Danilo Medina, whom I said had a 77% chance of winning.
• The Peruvian Election was won by Pedro Pablo Kuczynski.  I said he had a 10% chance of winning, but I gave the same percentage chance to two other candidates.  I think this was a fairly reasonable prediction.

Canada Post Strike v2

Before the end of 2016, will there be a Canada Post strike or lockout involving CUPW?
Yes: 55%

Since my last post, Canada Post has given notice that it plans to lock out workers (see article here).  I am increasing my odds of a strike or lockout accordingly.

Post-Mortem: Miscellaneous

• The City of Ottawa has asked the province for permission to use photo radar (see my post Photo Radar Ottawa).  In March, I said there was only a 30% chance that this would happen, which I think might have been a reasonable estimate, given the opposition to the idea at the time.
• Construction has started on the Mooney's Bay Playground.  I said there was an 85% chance that this would happen in 2016, which was a good estimate.
• The City of Toronto has passed a taxi reform bylaw (see my post Toronto Taxi Reform).  In April, I said there was a 30% chance that this would happen, which might have been a slight underestimate.
• The M3MSat Launch has taken place.  Last July, I said there was a 70% chance it would be launched before the end of 2016.
• Certain New Brunswick Liquor Limits were found to be unconstitutional.  I said there was a 20% chance that this would happen, which might have been too low.

Post Mortem: Federal Politics

• A federal law regulating assisted suicide has been passed, slightly after the Supreme Court extended deadline.  In February 2015, I said there was only a 20% chance that a law would not be passed before the existing law was struck down (in my post Assisted Suicide Law).  This may have been a bit too low.  In November 2015 (in my post Assisted Suicide Law v2) , I said there was a 50% chance that the February 2016 deadline would be extended, as it was.  This might have been a slightly under-confident estimate.  In February 2016 (in my post Assisted Suicide Law v3), I said there was a 25% chance that the existing law would expire, which again might have been too low of an estimate.  Finally, this June (in my post Assisted Suicide Law v4). I said there was a 40% chance a new assisted suicide law would be passed by the end of June.  Overall, I may have been too confident that a law would be passed by the deadline, but not confident enough that a law would be eventually passed.
• The federal government has created an Electoral Reform Committee.  I said there was a 45% chance that such a committee would be created by the end of June,
• A CPP Expansion Agreement has been reached (also see my post CPP Expansion Agreement v2).  Last December, I said there was a 25% chance of such an agreement being reached, which I later increased to 50%.  Both estimates may have been too low.

Federal Email v2

By the end of August 2017, will the new federal government email system be completed?
Yes: 60%
(Substantial completion is what counts; there can be a few departments not using the system, or a few features not yet released.)

Since my last post, there have been further delays in the roll-out of the new federal government email system (see article here).  However, progress seems to have been made, and it seems more likely than not that the roll-out will be complete by the end of next August.

Second Brexit Referendum

Before the end of August 2017, will another referendum be announced on the UK leaving the EU?
Yes: 15%

There has been some speculation that another Brexit referendum might be held, likely after negotiations have led to some new deal (see article here).  My sense is that this is possible, but unlikely, especially in the short time frame of this question.

Supervised Injection Site Ottawa v2

Before the end of June 2017, will the federal government approve a supervised injection site in Ottawa?
Yes: 50%

Since my last post, more support has been expressed for supervised injection sites (see article here).  I am thus increasing my forecast.  However, the timeline for this question is still fairly tight.